South Dakota researchers draw lessons from persistent rural communities

A group of South Dakota State University researchers took a different route while investigating rural population trends in the Northern Great Plains.

Instead of following the common research path concerning rural depopulation in the plains states that grew out of the Great Depression and asked why people were leaving, the researchers asked why people were staying in rural communities.

“There is depopulation in rural areas,” says Gary Aguiar, an associate professor of political science at South Dakota State University in Brookings, SD, one of four researchers taking part in the study examining life in deep rural communities. “We take that as a given.”

For decades young people have been moving away from the farms and small towns they grew up in, seeking job opportunities, better pay and benefits and more amenities in midsized and larger cities. The Northern Great Plains have experienced moderate population gains in recent years, but some rural areas, small towns and cities within the region continue to see population declines.

The number of North Dakota and South Dakota residents of retirement age is projected to grow by about 60 percent each in the next two decades. The number of Minnesotans turning 62 is also forecasted to jump by 30 percent in the next year. The impact is expected to be more severe in rural areas that require a certain critical mass of residents and businesses to survive.

Despite the dire projections, the researchers say their findings offer some encouraging signs.

“We look at the projections that have been given in the past and our question is: How can anyone still be here?” asked Meredith Redlin, a professor of rural sociology at South Dakota State. “By all of these population loss projections, we’re supposed to be empty by now.”

The study by Redlin, Aguiar and economics professors George Langelett and Gerald Warmann called “Why Are You Still Out There? Persistence among Deep Rural Communities in the Northern Plains” will be published in the Online Journal of Rural Research & Policy.

The data for these rural communities still appears to be rather bleak. “But we happened to notice some bright stars,” Aguiar says. “That’s what we’re calling rural persistence. There are some communities that are not growing or thriving, but they are surviving.”

As the researchers examined the data, patterns began to emerge within the communities that pointed to specific factors that kept people in small towns. Economic factors played a part, but they weren’t the only indicators of why people remained, residents returned or new people moved to the towns.

“It’s not just jobs,” Aguiar says. “Yes, people need to work and make a living. But it’s a whole confluence of social, political and economic reasons that lead to people to stay or to come back.”

The study examined communities in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana with less than 50,000 people and excluded high-amenity areas like the Black Hills area of South Dakota as well as tribal lands because of differences in funding and governance. Those left lived between one and three hours from major metropolitan areas, according to Aguiar.

Despite the study’s rural geography, the definition of rural and urban varies depending on government definitions.

“The problem is the definition of urban is skewed in this country. If you’re a town that has 2,500 people, that’s considered urban by the Census Bureau,” Aguiar says. “If you’re an incorporated or non-incorporated municipality that is just over 500 people living in a population density, you’re urban. That’s why when they report 85 percent of Americans are urbanites, I just throw that number out. That’s worthless.”

With the proliferation of more spread out geographic trade areas, the definition of rural continues to evolve.

“What we’re finding is a lot of the counties that are scoring the highest within our statistical model are those counties that have some sort of urban island,” Redlin says. “The networks of small towns form a sort of trade center for a more metropolitan area.”

While economic factors are at the heart of most research on successful communities, Redlin says there is more to the equation.

“These sustainable communities, aside from the economics, also have social capital, this sense of community networking, community volunteerism,” she says. “That kind of association doesn’t serve a political organizational end or an economic end, but builds and supports the sense of a group and community working together. It’s not unique to the Northern Great Plains, but it is a real strength of the culture of predominately rural places.”

The researchers say their work has barely scratched the surface and they plan to find out more about why and how some rural communities are surviving while others are not. Once the factors are identified and specific strategies are devised, a sustainable development model will be developed for rural communities throughout the region.

“What we’re looking for is a way to effectively build a development model for medium and low population levels, which is more likely to be the status of the Northern Great Plains region,” Redlin says. “That’s why we want to look at who is still there.”

Franz is a Grand Forks, ND-based freelance writer. She can be reached at janie_58201@yahoo.com.